Russia Oil Production Remains Less Than the Expected Output

Russian Oil Production

Russia fell short of its pledged crude oil production reduction last month, surpassing the voluntary target agreed upon with OPEC+ in March.

People familiar with Energy Ministry data, speaking anonymously because the figures are not public, revealed that daily crude production averaged just under 1.285 million tons in April.

Based on the typical conversion ratio of 7.33 barrels per ton for Russia’s crude, this equates to approximately 9.418 million barrels per day.

While this represents a decrease of about 219,000 barrels per day from March, it still exceeds the level specified in Russia’s agreement with OPEC+ by 319,000 barrels per day.

Russian Oil Production

The Energy Ministry of Russia has not yet commented on the April and March crude output figures. Russia is unique among OPEC+ nations in dividing its curbs between crude and refined product production and exports.

For April, Russia pledged to reduce its output by 350,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, in addition to the 500,000 barrels per day of production curbs announced in February 2023.

In this quarter, Moscow committed to deeper output cuts, aiming for reductions of 900,000 barrels per day and 971,000 barrels per day in May and June, respectively. These reductions would align Russia’s total output curbs in the second quarter with Saudi Arabia’s cuts.

Russian Oil Production

OPEC+ is scheduled to convene next month in Vienna to discuss whether to extend its cuts into the second half of the year. Russia classified its oil production data last year due to sensitivity amid Western sanctions over its aggression against Ukraine.

The Energy Ministry does not disclose the conversion ratio it uses for its monthly compliance assessment, potentially leading to differences in internal calculations compared.

Nate O'Hara
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