The Bank of England has opted to maintain interest rates at 5.25%, but hints at a potential move towards reducing borrowing costs.
In its recent meeting, the Bank discussed the possibility of rate cuts, citing the expected rapid decline in inflation throughout the year. However, Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need for concrete evidence that inflation is under control before taking any action.
This meeting saw a notable divergence in opinions within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). While Swati Dhingra voted for an immediate rate cut to 5%, two members supported an increase to 5.5%, marking the first three-way split since the 2008 financial crisis.
Over the past years, the Bank has incrementally raised rates to combat inflation, with the last increase occurring in August last year. Higher interest rates serve to mitigate inflation by making borrowing more expensive and discouraging excessive spending.
Inflation has significantly receded from its peak in October 2022, currently standing at 4%, with the Bank aiming to maintain it at around 2%. Bailey expressed optimism about the downward trajectory of inflation, although he cautioned that a rate cut might still be several months away.
Despite indications that rates may have peaked, the Bank remains cautious, awaiting further evidence of sustained inflation reduction.
Some economists express concern that the recent decline in inflation may be artificially influenced by energy price caps, anticipating a rebound as global energy prices recover. Additionally, robust wage growth further complicates the inflation outlook.
Paul Dales of Capital Economics suggests that while the Bank hinted at potential rate cuts, it remains hesitant about the timing and extent of such moves. However, he predicts a faster decline in inflation and anticipates rate cuts in the near future.
Yael Selfin of KPMG UK echoes this sentiment, highlighting the Bank’s reluctance to maintain high rates for an extended period, given the lag in the economy’s response to previous rate hikes.
Nonetheless, she expects a cautious approach from the Bank before initiating rate cuts, likely to commence from the summer onwards.
