The important thing in “TV away” verification is to follow the trends of each generation. While referring to past data, we will slide and predict the future 10 years from now. What is the future of people in their 30s, who are currently competing for TV viewing and Internet usage, in their 40s, what should the industry do now? Anime critic, Fujitsu-Ryota thinks.
Generational TV ratings, Internet ratings
On May 25, the NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute announced the “National Life Time Survey,” and the results that clearly showed the tendency to move away from television attracted a lot of attention. I don’t think the trend away from TV is surprising anymore, but the graph comparing TV viewing and Internet usage was quite interesting. I’m not a professional media researcher, so when I look at this kind of data, I focus on reading the general trends with a “grab.” And by having what I read as a”, it becomes clear where to look and what to cover when touchhypothesising various events in my case, topics that are closer to the anime business. Then, the information obtained through the interview will be used to correct the “hypothesis” itself. This time, we will talk about such a “rough hypothesis.” By the way, the graph that was interesting this time was like this upper right of people aged 16 to 19 use the Internet a day. Total of “people who watched TV 15 minutes or more are counted as viewing” and “people who used the Internet “watching/using the Internet or SNS for hobbies/entertainment “and” watching videos on the Internet” on weekdays ”Shows how much of that age group is. What is interesting about this graph is that in their 30s, 63% of TV viewers and 62% of Internet users are almost in competition. According to the 2010 “National Life Time Survey” 10 years ago, 32% of people in their 20s and 33% of people in their 30s use the Internet on weekdays, and the “mountain” when looking over all generations is here. At this time, 78% of people in their 20s watch TV, and 80% watch TV in their 30s. And five years ago, in the 2015 survey, 39% were in their 20s, and 32% were in their 30s. At this time, there are more teens than 30s, 36%. Regarding TV viewing, 62% are in their 20s, which is the lowest among all generations, and 69% are in their 30s, which is the second from the bottom.
The Internet has the longest contact time
Looking at these changes, the current 30s are the generation in which the weight of contact media has gradually changed from television to the Internet in the last 10 years, and the generations below that have drastically switched to the Internet. It can be seen that the generations above that are the generations who have not lost the habit of watching TV even though the use of the Internet has increased. In other words, it seems that the current 30s are in a watershed position. Born from 1982 to 1991 in his 30s. Considering that it was born in 1986 as a model, it may be easier to imagine that Windows 95 appeared at the age of 9 and reached the “first year of the Internet”, and that smartphones became popular after the age of 21. The generation of this “watershed” will be in their 40s in 10 years. Moreover, the ratio of watching TV to the growth of Internet usage has decreased significantly to around 20 points for those in their 20s and younger compared to 5 years ago and has decreased from 7 points to 13 points for those in their 30s to 50s. .. This means that in the last decade, the Internet will be the longest-running mass media for most people of working age. Of course, it is certain that it will happen eventually, but looking at this data, we can predict that it will come “10 years later” with a fairly specific age. In other words, the 2020s is the final decade in which the television culture that began in the 1950s has finally reached a turning point, and we have to think about how various businesses (including TV stations) will fight in the field of the Internet. You can see that there is.
What happens to the “synchronicity” and “scattering power” that are important for anime?
And finally, it’s about anime. The reason why anime chooses terrestrial broadcasting even at midnight when the audience rating is low, is that terrestrial broadcasting has “the power to disperse the power to reach the unspecified majority)” and the “synchronicity” that arises from it. The power to make people feel a kind of “community” between those watching the program at the same time “. In the process of decreasing the proportion of TV viewing in the next 10 years, “synchronicity” may become weaker first. For the past 10 years or so, it has been noticed that the “synchronicity” of SNS a function that allows you to share this moment with many people and the “synchronicity” of television are compatible. The point is that there is a TV broadcast, so buzzThe idea is that the recognition of the work will improve. However, when considering the departure from television in the teens and 20s, it seems unlikely that this situation will be maintained in the next 10 years. The first graph I saw for watching TV / using the Internet showed the percentage for each generation. If you use the population of the Basic Resident Register and convert it to the number of people you can imagine, your impression will change again. The increments of 10 to 15 years old and 16 to 19 years old in the “National Life Time Survey” are different from the increments of 5 years old in the normal survey, but here, in order to know the general tendency, “National Life Time” The ratio of the “survey” was directly applied to the population aged 10 to 14 and 15 to 19 years old. That was estimated from the “National Lifetime Survey”, “people who watch TV for 15 minutes or more on weekdays” and “weekdays”. The number of people who use the Internet for hobbies, entertainment, and education + people who watch online videos. In terms of percentage, Internet users in their 40s and 50s seem to be less used than in the younger generation, but in real numbers, they are generally in their teens and 20s (17.37 million) and in their 40s and 50s (1875). It is a scale similar to that of 10,000 people. The number of people in their teens and 20s watching TV is 12.33 million, while the number of people in their 40s and 50s watching TV is 26.4 million, which is almost double. In other words, it can be predicted that people in their 40s or older who watch TV and go online are the ones who are visualizing the affinity between TV broadcasting and SNS. It is highly possible that the reason why TV broadcasting and the Internet buzz are compatible at present is that the generation who often watches TV is also using the Internet. Then, in the next 10 years, it is possible that the excitement of terrestrial broadcasting and SNS due to “synchronicity” will subside. Then, how will the “scattering power”, which is another power of terrestrial broadcasting, change? Late-night anime has gained recognition for its work with this “scattering power,” and has continued its business model for about 20 years, linking it to program viewing and the purchase of packaged software.
Anime never goes away
In this way, the relationship between television and anime will have to change significantly over the next 10 years. However, on the other hand, there is also a trend that TV stations are shifting from “broadcasting business” to “content business”, and animation has already established a position as a presence that brings non-broadcasting income to TV stations, so TV stations are The more you try to survive as a content maker/content holder, the less likely it is that anime will disappear. On the other hand, the booming anime industry itself is supported by sales of program sales to overseas distribution services. It is unclear how long this situation will continue, but what kind of merits will the anime industry find in collaboration with the television industry in a situation where the sales destinations of works are expanding in various ways? Looking at the graph of the “National Life Time Survey,” the focus of the anime industry over the next 10 years came to the fore.
anime critic. After working as a newspaper reporter and editing a weekly magazine, he started writing anime-related articles in 2000. “Anime Gate V” “Anime! Anime!”, “Conditions for the main character” “Anime Hack”, ” Acchi live-action and Kochi animation “BANGER!”, “Anime In addition to serialization such as To Game “Gamer”, he has also worked on many magazines, Blu-ray booklets, pamphlets, etc. His major books include “My Voice Actors Talked by 13 Professionals” Kawade Shobo Shinsha and “Why We Watch Anime”.